Monday, 5 December 2016

What Is a Derivative and How Do Derivatives Work?

As the world melted down during the 2007-2009 collapse, investors were asking all kinds of questions about derivatives such as, "What is a derivative?" and "How do derivatives work?". At the time, I sat down to pen an article walking you through the basics but now, many years later, I want to return, expand, update, and clarify some of the original points I made so you have a better understanding of the role of derivatives in the overall economy, financial markets, and, perhaps, even in your personal investment portfolio.
Let's start at the beginning by answering the most fundamental question: What is a derivatives

What Is a Derivative?
The term derivative is often defined as something -- a security, a contract  that derives its value from its relationship with another asset or stream of cash flows. There are many types of derivatives and they can be good or bad, used for productive things or as speculative tools. Derivatives can help stabilize the economy or bring the economic system to its knees in a catastrophic implosion due to an inability to identify the real risks, properly protect against them, and anticipate so-called "daisy-chain" events where interconnected corporations, institutions, and organizations find themselves instantaneously bankrupted as a result of a poorly written or structured derivative position with another firm that failed; a domino effect.
A major reason this danger is built into derivatives is because of something called counter-party risk.Most derivatives are based upon the person or institution on the other side of the trade being able to live up to the deal that was struck. If society allows people to use borrowed money to enter into all sorts of complex derivative arrangements, we could find ourselves in a scenario where everybody carries these derivative positions on their books at large values only to find that, when it's all unraveled, there's very little money there because a single failure or two along the way wipes everybody out with it.
The problem becomes exacerbated because many privately written derivative contracts have built-in collateral calls that require a counter party to put up more cash or collateral at the very time they are likely to need all the money they can get, accelerating the risk of bankruptcy. It is for this reason that billionaire Charlie Munger, long a critic of derivatives, calls most derivative contracts "good until reached for" as the moment you actually need to grab the money, it could very well evaporate on you no matter what you're carrying it at on your balance sheet. Munger and his business partner Warren Buffett famously get around this by only allowing their holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, to write derivative contracts in which they hold the money and under no condition can they be forced to post more collateral along the way.

Sunday, 4 December 2016

7 Steps To Stock Investing Without Too Much Risk.

Millennials are more likely than other generations to be risk-averse.
They hold 52% of their savings in cash and only 28% in stocks, according to a UBS study. For other generations, the weightings are nearly the reverse: 23% in cash and 46% in stocks.
A 2013 Accenture report found that 43% of Millennials identify as conservative investors, whereas just 27% of Gen Xers and 31% of Boomers do.
And 43% said they would never be comfortable investing in the stock market, in a MFS Investment Management study.
But investing conservatively — or investing very little and holding your money in cash — runs counter to conventional investment advice for the young, which says, invest aggressively now, while your long time horizon will allow you to recover from any losses, so you can reap the compounding benefits of growth.
If you’re a gun-shy Millennial investor or a risk-averse investor of any age, here’s how to try out stock investing without getting burned.
1. Learn about the various types of investments.
If you’re absolutely brand-new to investing, get the lay of the land first. Read some basic books (here’s a good list), join an Investing 101-type Meetup group, and do some research, such as on the Bogleheads forum, for do-it-yourself investors.
“Know: what is a stock, what is a bond, what is an investment allocation, what’s a mutual fund, what’s an ETF,” says PJ Wallin, a certified financial planner with Richmond-based Atlas Financial. “Kind of like Warren Buffett said with derivatives, ‘If it’s too hard to understand, maybe I shouldn’t invest in it.’”
2. Invest in a broadly diversified portfolio of low-cost ETFs (exchange traded funds) and index funds.
Keeping your costs low is surefire way to reap higher returns. Over time, tiny percentage charges and or small fees add up — for a median-income two-earner family, they will eat away almost one-third of their investment returns in a 401(k), according to a study published by the public policy organization Demos, The Retirement Savings Drain: Hidden and Excessive Costs of 401(k)s.
Going with index funds and ETFs not only keeps your costs low, but it also limits your risk. “With an index approach, where you’re investing in mutual funds or ETFs that allow you to get access to over 8,000 individual positions, you’re not at risk of one company going bankrupt or falling out of favor with the market,” says Wallin.
3. Don’t try to beat the market; participate in it.
In trying to beat the market, investors usually underperform not just the market, but even the investments they choose, because they buy and sell at less than optimal times.
To participate in the market’s gains over time, Wallin suggests creating a portfolio diversified across different asset classes — large cap, mid cap, small cap, U.S., international developed, international emerging, etc. — and then depending on how far you are from retirement, or how much risk you want to take, determining the balance of stocks versus bonds. Regularly invest a portion of your paycheck or other money so that you’re not timing your trades but just making investing a habit. Learn these 10 secrets to outperforming other investors. And don’t make these five big investing mistakes.
4. If you want to try investing in stocks, set aside a small percentage of your portfolio — and be willing to lose it all.
Once you’ve got a nice nest egg started, you should have a financial planner or investment advisor who is a fiduciary, meaning they’ll give you financial advice that’s in your best financial interest, ahead of their own. (See the slide show below for what questions to ask when choosing a financial advisor.) With your planner, determine a percentage that you can safely set aside for stock investing. No matter what, it should be an amount of money that you don’t need to achieve your goals.
“If you want to try out a little stock investing, take a small portion of your money and do it with abandon and have fun and good luck to you, but for the rest of your money, keep it in a diversified portfolio,” says Kitces, who recommends people set aside no more than 5% or 10%. “We see very affluent folks that do it with 2% because that’s a lot of money if you have a big account,” he says. Treat this money as if it were gambling money — accept that you very well may lose it.
5. To mitigate the risk even further, look into Motif Investing.
“What a true experienced stock investor will tell you is that it’s important to have risk structures for yourself so you don’t have one idea that blows up your entire portfolio,” says Kitces. One way of doing that, even when you veer from the typical diversified portfolio and dive into stocks, is to spread the risk again, which you can do through Motif Investing, which founder Hardeep Walia calls “a concept-driven investing platform” that allows you to follow through on your own investing desires.
Let’s say you think the Internet in China will grow hugely in the next several years, and you want to invest in companies that will benefit. While it might take a while to investigate all the various Chinese portals, e-commerce companies and social networks, and then choose a few to invest in, you could instead buy a China Internet “motif,” or a selection of up to 30 companies that stand to grow along with China’s internet. (Motif offers 150 motifs it has curated, plus almost 65,000 motifs that users, many of whom are professional investors, have created.) Each motif is $9.95 per trade, which, since most trades consist of buying shares in 30 stocks, is much cheaper than what you’ll find on similar platforms.
While many planners would be extremely cautious about recommending their clients invest in stocks, Kitces says that Motif is an improvement: “To take the classic example from 10 years ago, if you were investing in an energy motif instead of an individual energy company, you don’t have the risk that the individual company you picked turns out to be Enron. So you can still benefit from the boom in energy, and not worry that the company you picked might turn out to be a problem company even in the middle of what was otherwise a good idea.”
6. When trying Motif, decide what type(s) of investing you’d like to do.
Walia emphasizes that the platform suits a range of investing strategies and personalities: If you’re an active trader and you want to trade the most beaten-down stocks every week, such as in its Buy the Dip motif, you can choose a motif that will do that for you. Motif can even accommodate the low-cost diversified part of your portfolio that is the core of your strategy with its Horizon models, which are automatically rebalanced every quarter and completely free (no management fee, no $9.95 charge).
“We have people on our platform who are day traders that trade 30 times a day, and we have what we call ‘set it and forget it’ investors — ‘Give me the one motif I need to buy and let me go to sleep. I really don’t have time for this.’ We can cover all these ranges,” says Walia. With your play money — go with an in-between strategy where you won’t trade every day, but you can take a more active role and veer from the traditional passive investing philosophy.
7. To select motifs to buy with your ‘play’ money, go with industries or subjects you understand, or convictions you have.
Unlike regular investing where certain principles guide your actions, with motif investing, it’s really about what you know or think. “Invest in the ideas that are compelling to you and for which you think there’s a reasonable basis,” says Kitces. Don’t choose motifs based on past performance: “If your view is that 3D printing is going to go crazy and be the biggest idea over the next 10 years, frankly, I couldn’t care less what it’s done over the past year.”
If, say, you believe interest rates will rise and some companies will benefit, you could buy the Rising Interest Rates motif. “We always encourage people to start with something they understand, if you’re a newbie investor. My dad’s a surgeon, so he might take something like Minimally Invasive Surgery,” says Walia. “It doesn’t mean it’s the right investment, but it’s a nice way to get comfortable investing if you’re a new investor. You can say, ‘This is overpriced right now, I understand the companies in this motif.’”
Unlike with a mutual fund or ETF, you will see all the securities you will own, and the weighting behind each. If you want, you can change the weighting within the basket, or if you think certain companies in the sector are missing, you can add them (up to the 30-stock limit). Socially conscious investors will be happy to know they can also remove stocks from their motif.
Select several motifs to fill out the non-traditionally allocated portion of your portfolio to further spread the risk. Walia owns 20 such motifs. Depending on how much money your 5% or 10% is, you will may want to spread your risk out with as few as five motifs or as many as Walia has.
Finally, don’t try to time your trades to buy low and sell high. Buy a motif because you believe in it — not because the price seems low. “Everything has been going up for five years straight, so frankly something that has been down in the past year when the market has been up tremendously, to me would certainly would raise questions. Why do you want to buy something that can’t even make money in a bull market? Clearly other investors don’t think it’s a good deal at the price it’s at. You could believe they’re wrong and have a good reason, but it better be a darn good reason rather than ‘it’s cheaper than it was a year ago.’”

What is IPO Grey Market?




IPO Grey Market is an unofficial market where IPO applications or shares are bought and sold before they become officially available for trading on the stock exchange.
Its an over-the-counter market where dealers may execute orders for preferred customers as well as provide support for a new issue before it is actually issued.
Note: As IPO Grey Market is unofficial over-the-counter market, there are no regulations around it. All transactions are done in cash on personal basis. SEBI, Stock Exchange or Brokers are not involve or back these transaction.
Grey market trading include :
Trading (selling or buying) IPO Applications at certain rate (premium) and
Trading (selling or buying) allocated IPO shares before they list on stock exchanges.
Grey market trading is usually done among the small set of people who trust each other as there is no official platform or rules define for these trading.
Two popular terms used in IPO grey market are ‘Grey Market Premium' and ‘ Kostak'.
1. Grey market premium (or grey market price) is a premium amount in rupees at which IPO shares are being traded in Grey Market before they get listed in stock exchange. Grey market premium can be in positive or in negative based on demand and supply of the stock.
Grey Market Premiums are also attached with words ‘Buyer' or ‘Seller'. They tell the price either at which buyers are willing to buy shares or the price at which sellers are willing to sell their IPO shares.
Example:
Mundra Port and SEZ Limited
Issue Price: Rs 440 per equity share
Grey Market Premium: Rs 400 (Buyers)
This means buyers are ready to buy Mundra Port shares at 440+400 = Rs 840.
SVPCL Limited
Issue Price: Rs 45 per equity share
Grey Market Premium: Rs -6 (Seller)
This means sellers are ready to sell SVPCL shares at the discount of Rs 6. i.e. 45-6 = Rs 39.
2. Kostak (or price of application) is the premium amount in rupees at which IPO applications are being traded in IPO Grey Market. Usually ‘Kostak' value is defined as the premium of a maximum lot retail application in an IPO.
Kostak price is important mostly before issue is close for subscription and final bidding status is available to the IPO investors. Very few IPOs applications are traded after final bidding status is available to the investors.
‘Kostak' is especially for people who do not want to take risk with IPO allotment or listing gains.
Example:
BGR Energy Limited
Issue Price: Rs 480 Per Equity Share (at upper band)
Lot Size: 14
Grey Market Premium: Rs 350 to Rs 360
Kostak (Rs 100000): Rs 2500 to Rs 2600
This means BGR applications of Rs 1 lakhs are being traded in IPO Grey Market at Rs 2500 to Rs 2600.
Even though the Grey Market Premium of this IPO is around 75% of the issue price, the ‘Kostak' is just 5% of the application amount. This is because Grey Market traders are assuming that the issue will highly oversubscribe and there will not be firm allotment even for retail investors who will apply full Rs 1 lakhs. They are assuming one out of two people will get allotment and thus Rs 2 lakh investment will give them approximate Rs 5000 return. This way they are ready to buy 1 lakh application for Rs 2500.

Saturday, 3 December 2016

How an investment of Rs.10000 grew to Rs.535 Crores in 34 years?

If I had the technology to send a message back in time, I would tell 

Mr. A in 1980 to “Use Rs.10,000 to buy 100 shares of Wipro as an one-time investment and never sell it for the next 30-35 years.” If he had done that his investment would now be worth about Rs.535 crores. Yes, you read that right. Crores, not thousands or lakhs.

This is one of the common examples given when people come into investing in shares in India. Almost every indian blog about investing in stock markets give this example and I also post this here as requested by a reader. Lot of people think that it is a lie and don’t believe it, but it is possible and there are numbers to prove it.

Rs.10,000 to Rs.535 Crores
Lets just assume that you bought 100 shares of Wipro each at a face value of Rs.100 in the year 1980. Total investment: Rs.10,000. You don’t touch it at all, no profit booking or buying more shares. Occasionally companies provide benefits to its shareholders by way of corporate actions. They could provide bonus shares for shares that you hold, they could do a stock split where a high face value share would be broken down into smaller face value shares but number of shares increases proportionately, etc.

Wipro has done various such bonuses and stock splits in its history of 1980-2014. Lets now see the different corporate actions and how the number of stocks would’ve grown.
Wipro Investment growth
Year Action Number of Shares
1980 Initial Investment 100
1981 1:1 Bonus 200
1985 1:1 Bonus 400
1986 Stock split to FV Rs.10 4,000
1987 1:1 Bonus 8,000
1989 1:1 Bonus 16,000
1992 1:1 Bonus 32,000
1995 1:1 Bonus 64,000
1997 2:1 Bonus 1,92,000
1999 Stock split to FV Rs.2 9,60,000
2004 2:1 Bonus 28,80,000
2005 1:1 Bonus 57,60,000
2010 2:3 Bonus 96,00,000

After the year 2010, there were no more bonuses or stock splits. But with just that initial investment of Rs.10,000 (100 shares) you now would end up with 96,00,000 shares of the company because of all the stock splits and bonus shares. Current stock price of Wipro is about Rs.557 per share, as of 7 April, 2014.

Rs.557 × 96,00,000 = Rs.534,72,00,000 or about Rs.535 crores. That is a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 47.39%. Does any of your bank FD give you 47% annual interest rate? It was all possible because of the free shares that the company gave to its shareholders as an incentive for investing in their company. If you immediately needed to liquidate this entire holding today (urgent need for >Rs.500 crores?), you can do it and you would have to pay a grand total of 0% tax on your profits, because long-term capital gains in equity is tax-free.

How about additional yearly payout of Rs.6 crores?
If you thought that tax-free Rs.535 crores out of a meagre investment of Rs.10,000 was unbelievable, here comes another shocker. Every year the company announces dividends from its operating profits for its shareholders. As a shareholder, you would also get this benefit for how many ever stocks you hold.

For example, last year 2013 (calendar year), the company announced total of Rs.7 per share. Multiply this with the number of shares you hold and this will be automatically credited to your bank account.
Rs.7 × 96,00,000 = Rs.6,72,00,000 or Rs.6.72 crores for the year 2013.
Best part: dividends are also not taxed at the hands of the shareholder (as of FY 2013-14). So you can take all of this Rs.6.72 crores for yourself.

For a comparison, just calculate your (or your dad’s) current salary per annum and imagine getting Rs. 5-6 crores every year as additional income. How does this Rs.10000 investment compare to all the other money invested in other products like real estate or gold. No other investment would’ve given you annual tax-free payouts. If only my dad had the surplus money to invest in this.
Has anybody really done this? Can I go buy Wipro now?

As the saying goes “hindsight is 20/20”, we can calculate all this only after the company has grown from selling vegetable oils, soaps to becoming an IT major. Had everyone known that this cooking oil company would give such returns in 1980, everyone would have invested in this and become billionaires. Also the shares wouldn’t have been listed on any exchange in 1980 and you would have had to invest privately into the company. Buying Wipro now wouldn’t give you the same returns as the company is already grown to such proportions and such a large cap stock giving multi-fold returns is very hard.

How can I get returns like this?

There have been numerous such companies that have given great returns to investors, like Reliance, Titan, Dr. Reddy Labs, etc. No one can predict which company would grow to such a huge levels before 30 years. Remember, for every Wipro like story, there are thousands of companies which has eroded investors wealth and become penny stocks. Investing in equities alone isn’t enough, investing in the right company at the right time is even more important.

Even if someone invested in the best company in the world, its basic human psychology to book profits when the stock prices increase so many fold. Some investors don’t feel comfortable even for a 50% increase in their investment. No one would have the patience to hold such a stock when he sees how volatile the market is in short-term.

If you really want such phenomenal returns, you would have to do lot of fundamental research, do your due diligence on the company and invest in it when it’s in the early stages. Most important of all is, staying invested in the company for the really long-term to reap the entire benefits.

Thursday, 1 December 2016

EQUITIES

The securities market has two interdependent and inseparable segments, the new issues (primary) market and the stock (secondary) market. The primary market provides the channel for creation and sale of new securities, while the secondary market deals in securities previously issued. The Stock market or Equities market is where listed securities are traded in the secondary market. Currently more than 1300 securities are available for trading on the Exchange.
About Equities
The Equity market also known as the stock market is where the listed securities are traded in the secondary market. This is one of the most vital areas of a market economy, as investors have the opportunity to own a slice of ownership in a company with the potential to realize gains based on its future performance. The price of shares and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity, and can influence or be an indicator of social mood More >
Trading
NSE's automated screen based trading, modern, fully computerised trading system designed to offer investors across the length and breadth of the country a safe and easy way to invest. The NSE trading system called 'National Exchange for Automated Trading' (NEAT) is a fully automated screen based trading system, which adopts the principle of an order driven market.
Clearing & Settlement
NSCCL carrries out the clearing and settlement of the trades executed in the equities and derivatives segments of the NSE. It operates a well-defined settlement cycle and there are no deviations or deferments from this cycle. It aggregates trades over a trading period, nets the positions to determine the liabilities of members and ensures movement of funds and securities to meet respective liabilities.
Risk Management
NSCCL has put in place a comprehensive risk management system, which is constantly upgraded to pre-empt market failures. The Clearing Corporation ensures that trading member obligations are commensurate with their networth.